Topics: U.S.-Iran war

PETE STEFANOVIC: Joining us now is the Liberal Senator and the former ambassador to Israel, Dave Sharma. Uh, good to see you this morning, Dave. Uh, so, I mean, given your experience in the region, and, uh, we had a bit to do together, uh, previous wars when it comes to Gaza and Israel, but you'd be aware of what contingency plans the government might be exploring. Richard Marles wouldn't go further, but what are some of the ideas that could be on the table here?

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DAVE SHARMA: Well, look, let me just say up front, Pete, I think the government could have and should have done more to warn the traveling public about this. The risks of this conflict were entirely foreseeable. Uh, last week, DFAT, uh, ordered the departure of, um, family members of dependents of personnel in Israel and Lebanon, and they encouraged the, uh, departure of dependents in places like Qatar and the Gulf states. Now, that would have been the time for the Foreign Minister or the Prime Minister to hold a press conference, put out a media release to say, "We're concerned about rising tensions in the region. We're getting our own people out. Australians should consider leaving themselves whilst commercial options are still available." Uh, or deferring any travel to the region. They didn't do that. Last week, uh, Anthony Albanese's main foreign policy issue was the question of who is eighth in line the succession of the House of Windsor. not this issue. And I think, as a result, uh, Australians in the region are rightly feeling like they're standard, that they weren't warned about this. Of course, airspace is now closed. Commercial options to and from those countries are very limited. But this problem could have been mitigated, or at least addressed more in advance if the government had bothered to front up to the public last week and be louder and clearer in its warnings.

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PETE STEFANOVIC: Well, I mean, there was no heads up, though, from the US. I put those questions to Richard Marles when he was on, um, First Edition yesterday, and they were just, they just weren't told. so what can they do if the US doesn't see us as a major player, obviously.

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DAVE SHARMA: I don't agree. If you've got two aircraft carrier battle groups in the region, the biggest military buildup since 2003, you've got F-22s basing themselves in Israel, uh, you've got the naval fleet of Bahrain, the US Fifth Fleet dispersed, you've got diplomatic negotiations in Geneva that are making no progress, the government doesn't need to be given a heads up. You can just already tell that the environment is very volatile. And the fact that they ordered the departure of dependents from Israel and Lebanon last week on Wednesday and facilitated the departure of dependents from other Gulf states shows that they knew that there, there was a risk here, and I think they should have been louder and clearer about those risks to the Australian public.

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PETE STEFANOVIC: Okay, so what does it do now? what do you suspect the contingency plans are?

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DAVE SHARMA: Well, in this sort of environment, the contingency plans are difficult, because our assets are a long way from the theater. We don't control the airspace. Obviously, the airspace is going to be open or closed depending on military operations in the region. We can attempt to preposition assets, whether they're privately chartered commercial aircraft, Qantas, or military assets, so when windows open we can stage these sorts of evacuations. Um, but it's, I wouldn't understate the difficulty here. But we do need to, I mean, given the number of Australians that are impacted, given the uncertainty about how this conflict is likely to last, I think it's incumbent on the government, having failed in its duty to warn the Australian public last week, to do all its can to assist them this week.

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PETE STEFANOVIC: I mean, is there anything that can be done? Is there any, is there any kind of contingency plan, like you said, or is it completely hamstrung?

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DAVE SHARMA: No, I think, I mean, look, the airspace is open. There are limited flights operating to and from Abu Dhabi and Dubai and elsewhere in the region. I think I'd expect that Australian consular officials are helping to advise Australians about what routes are open and what routes are available, and then if people can get to a regional hub, whether Cyprus or Athens or somewhere like that, then we could assist them in either evacuation flights, military flights whatever it might be. Um, those are the sorts of contingencies. In these sorts of situations, you want to get out of the zone to somewhere a bit safer where you can marshal commercial, civilian, and military resources.

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PETE STEFANOVIC: Well, we've got the Al Minhad Airbase, that's not too far from there. I mean, at what point do you start looking at trying to get a military plane in?

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DAVE SHARMA: Well, I think because that's in the UAE, and the UAE is right in the thick of it at the moment, I mean, Iran is firing missiles, at the UAE, I don't think that's a... I mean, I'd defer to security experts here, but I don't think that's the most obvious right now. And clearly, commercial aircraft will always provide greater capacity and greater responsiveness if and when the airspace opens in those countries, and to the degree they open than anything we can muster militarily.

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PETE STEFANOVIC: well, on that point, I mean, should Australia be offering up any kind of help militarily?

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DAVE SHARMA: To this military operation?

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PETE STEFANOVIC: To, yeah, yeah, to Operation Epic Fury.

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DAVE SHARMA: Well, look I don't believe we've been asked. I think if we are asked, we should consider the request. But I don't think we have been asked. I don't think it's likely we'll be asked. I think what the United States and Israel would appreciate is our diplomatic support for this operation. And I think it's important that we give that on a bipartisan basis.

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PETE STEFANOVIC: Sure. Well, and if not for the US, what about, places like Qatar, which is seeing its interceptors, um, the stocks of those being rapidly deteriorated? I think they've only got three or four days left. I mean, is there equipment that we could be giving allies, American allies in the region to try and help them out?

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DAVE SHARMA: Well, look, the stuff that they're most worried about depleting quickly are the Terminal High Altitude Air Defense system, the THAAD batteries, and then the Patriot missile batteries. Now, Australia does not, I don't think we have any of those capabilities. We might, but if so, they're very low in number. So I don't think that's an area where we could assist. I think, where we can assist, though, is probably on the, on the diplomatic effort and the out-of-region effort as well.

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PETE STEFANOVIC: Okay. what about, there's plenty of breaking news around this morning, Dave, and there's so many angles today, the last one being that according to Reuters, Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz now. Ships had already started to avoid it, but Iran has threatened, as per Reuters, to set ships on fire for any that remain. What do you fear is the flow and effect here, knowing the region so well?

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DAVE SHARMA: Well, look, this was always something Iran was likely to do. In military exercises they conducted just about 10 days ago, they shut the Strait of Hormuz for a live fire exercise, so they were clearly trying to signal that this is what they would look to do during a crisis. Between 20 to 30% of the world's oil comes out of that, Strait of Hormuz from the Gulf countries, so it's going to have a significant impact on energy prices, on oil prices, on the price Australians pay for petrol, but also because energy's an input to most other goods, on the price we pay for everything, so that's going to have an inflationary impact. I think the United States will be focused very quickly on addressing this threat. I mean, they, they are targeting the Iranian Navy, um, and I think they will be seeking to get that strait opened as quickly as possible. But it is going to cause turmoil in global energy and commodity markets, undoubtedly.

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PETE STEFANOVIC: Okay, just finally and locally, Dave, mosques in Sydney, um, holding ceremonies to mourn the death of Ayatollah Khamenei. There were also protesters in Melbourne protesters crying on the streets over his death as well. What are your thoughts on all of that?

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DAVE SHARMA: Well, I think they're, they're very misguided. I mean, I think that's, that's atrocious behaviour. I think you only, um, if anyone has followed Iranian politics over the last, 45 years, everyone would know that the destructive, vicious, retrograde role that, um, Khomeini played in the governance of that country and its conduct towards its own citizens in supporting terrorist groups abroad. I don't think anyone should be mourning his loss, and I think the overwhelming majority of Iranians living in Iran, and exiles worldwide, are celebrating this moment as, as at, at long last, for the first time in there being some hope for a more positive and brighter future in Iran. And I think, those who are mourning his death, I mean, I'm not going to comment on them individually, but I think it's entirely misguided and I find it bizarre that they could even think to do such a thing.

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PETE STEFANOVIC: Okay. That's Liberal Senator Dave Sharma. Thanks as always for your time, Dave. Really appreciate it.

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[ENDS]